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Dow Jones Reverses Lower On Fed, Recession Fears; Tesla, Megacaps Hit Resistance

Dow Jones futures fell slightly after hours, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures.


The stock market rally reversed lower Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones undercutting or testing key levels, amid surprisingly weak economic data and hawkish Fed officials.

Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) all hit resistance at key levels Wednesday. None of these megacaps is near a buy point.

Some leading stocks struggled, such as Celsius (CELH), while others pulled back modestly with a few moving higher.

Alcoa reported earnings after the close. The aluminum giant reported an in-line quarterly loss while sales came up short. AA stock fell solidly in extended trade. Shares have surged since late September, recently retaking their 200-day line.

Netflix (NFLX) headlines Thursday earnings reports. NFLX stock drifted lower Wednesday, not far from multimonth highs. Netflix earnings, subscriber results and guidance also will be important for streaming plays such as Disney (DIS).

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures fell 0.15% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.15% and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.1%.

Crude oil futures sank 1%.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live

Stock Market Rally

The stock market rally started Wednesday with modest to solid gains, but soon turned solidly lower as investors digested economic data and Fed comments.

Before the market open, the producer price index, retail sales and industrial production all showed significant declines in December, far more than expected. Cooler inflation and a rapid deceleration in the economy bolstered expectations for slower Fed rate hikes and a halt in the near term, but also raised recession fears.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Meister both said they expect the central bank to hike rates above 5%. That’s in line with Fed forecasts for a 5.1% “terminal rate” but slightly more than markets currently expect.

Later, the Fed’s Beige Book report predicted “little growth” in coming months. Several Fed districts reported slowing inflation, but only a few saw weaker labor markets.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Tumbles

The Dow Jones Industrial Average skidded 1.8% in Wednesday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index tumbled 1.6%. The Nasdaq composite fell 1.4%. The small-cap Russell 2000 shed 1.6%.

Apple stock edged down 0.5% to 135.21 but fell back from an intraday high of 138.61, just below the 50-day line. MSFT stock crossed above its 50-day line intraday but closed down 1.9% to 235.81. Early Wednesday, Microsoft said it would cut 10,000 jobs, or 5% of its staff. AAPL and Microsoft are Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq components.

Google stock dipped 0.2% after hitting resistance at the 50-day line for a third straight session, but found support at the 21-day.

Tesla lost 2.1% to 128.78 after reaching 136.66 on Wednesday morning. Shares are back below the 21-day line after jumping 7.4%. TSLA stock hit a bear-market low of 101.81 on Jan. 6 but rebounded that day and beyond. Tesla has rallied on hopes that sweeping price cuts will buoy demand, but profit growth looks set to slow in 2023.

The 10-year Treasury yield plunged 16 basis points to 3.37%, a four-month low. The two-year Treasury yield, more closely tied to Fed policy, slid to 4.11%, hitting the lowest level since early October.

Markets have essentially locked in on a quarter-point Fed rate hike on Feb. 1. Investors strongly favor another quarter-point hike in late March, bringing the fed funds rate to 4.75%-5%. But there is now a 25% chance of no move then.

U.S. crude oil prices dipped 0.9% to $79.48 a barrel, reversing lower from $82.38 intraday. Natural gas tumbled 7.7%. Copper prices pared intraday gains to close up just 0.3%, but are up 13% in a nine-day winning streak.


Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) sank just over 1%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) gave up 1.25%, with MSFT stock a major holding. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) slipped 0.6%.

Reflecting stocks with more speculative stories, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) slumped 2.9% and ARK Genomics (ARKG) fell 1.6%. TSLA stock remains a major holding across Ark Invest’s ETFs. Cathie Wood’s Ark has loaded up on Tesla in recent weeks.

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) retreated 1.7%, with AA stock a notable component. U.S. Global Jets (JETS) descended 1.4%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB) declined 1%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) ceded 1.8%, and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) lost 1.9%….

Read More: Dow Jones Reverses Lower On Fed, Recession Fears; Tesla, Megacaps Hit Resistance

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